On the Sources of Business Cycles in the G-7
نویسندگان
چکیده
This paper examines sources of cyclical movements in output, in ation and the term structure of interest rates. It employs a novel identi cation approach which uses the sign of the cross correlation function in response to shocks to catalog orthogonal disturbances. We nd that demand shocks are the dominant source output, in ation and term structure uctuations in six of the G-7 countries. Within the class of demand disturbances, nominal shocks are dominant, but their importance declined after 1982. Furthermore, there are no signi cant di erences in the proportion of term structure variability explained by di erent structural sources at di erent horizons. JEL Classi cation No.: C68, E32, F11.
منابع مشابه
Test of Real Business Cycle Theory in Iran's economy
This paper tests the importance of real shocks as sources of fluctuations in iran’s economy. For this purpose, based on the work of Boschen and Mills, a set of non-monetary variables which can affect economic growth have been selected and by using an illustrative business cycle model in which the production depends on the past and current value of real shocks, the influence 01’ these variables ...
متن کاملThe Role of Financial Frictions in Iran’s Business Cycles: A DSGE Approach
B efore the incidence of the financial crisis in 2008, the financial sector was ignored in the most of business cycles analyses. It was assumed that the financial sector played no independent role in describing business cycle fluctuations and followed the real part of the economy. In recent years, modeling financial frictions have been much considered in business cycles literature. T...
متن کاملThe Synchronization of Business Cycles among Iran’s Trade Partners
In recent years, investigating synchronization of business cycles among countries, after increasing integration of global economies, has been attracted more attention of policy makers and researchers. Perhaps an unknown origin of such similarities, as an open question, is the main reason of these interests. So, with regard to the mentioned question, the aim of this paper is to investigate some ...
متن کاملEffects of Business Cycles on Bilateral Trade Flows in Eurozone Countries
In economic theory, various determinants are considered to explore their effects on trade patterns. Accordingly, business cycles indicate turbulences in economic activities. Business cycles and their fluctuations cause a change in demand for goods and services from the other country then it can affect trade flows. In this study, by using a gravity model, we study the effects of business cycles ...
متن کاملThe Business Cycles of Urban Housing Market (Case Study: Urban Housing Market of Isfahan, 1980-2014)
H ousing is a commodity with unique features and its market, especially in urban areas, is characterized by unique business cycles that differentiate it from other commodities. On one hand, housing market can be deeply influenced by economic shocks, and on the other hand, the sheer size of housing investments makes the economy particularly vulnerable to any shock in this market. Henc...
متن کاملThe Effect of Monetary Policy on Business Cycles in Iran Economy
Nowadays one of the most important issues in our economy, both from economic and political view is the link between monetary policy and business cycle fluctuations. Amongst the shocks related to the supply side, the shock of oil price is the important factor that has affected the world economy since the 1970s. This paper examines the effects of monetary policy and oil price shocks on the busine...
متن کامل